Sanctions, fossil dependency, and renewable aspirations shaping Iran’s geopolitical constraints on energy transition

Iran’s energy sector lies at the intersection of fossil fuel dependency, international sanctions, and delayed efforts toward renewable energy development. Covering the period 2000–2024, despite possessing some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, Iran’s energy transition is constrained by structural reliance on hydrocarbons, sanctions-induced isolation, and limited access to global finance and technology. This article employs a qualitative political economy approach, drawing on policy documents, secondary literature, and international energy data to examine how sanctions shape Iran’s capacity to adopt renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, in light of its acute vulnerability to climate change. It advances the concept of a “dual lock-in,” arguing that geopolitical isolation and domestic rentier institutions interact recursively to constrain structural transformation in the energy sector. Based on an original qualitative analysis of primary policy documents, it argues that the geopolitical contestation surrounding Iran—its exclusion from global energy markets, the securitization of its nuclear program, and its strained relations with Western powers—hampers its ability to diversify energy sources and integrate into global low-carbon pathways. The study highlights how domestic priorities, such as energy subsidies and rent distribution, reinforce fossil dependency while undermining incentives for decarbonization. The paper concludes that Iran’s energy future is locked between structural inertia and geopolitical constraints, where renewable aspirations remain secondary to survival strategies in a sanction-stricken environment.