Land degradation dynamics and resilience of tropical montane peatlands in the Serra do Espinhaço Meridional revealed by the SDG 15.3.1 indicator

Abstract Tropical montane peatlands are critical ecosystems for carbon storage, hydrological regulation, and biodiversity conservation, yet they remain poorly studied in tropical regions. In this study, we assessed land degradation dynamics in peatlands of the Serra do Espinhaço Meridional, southeastern Brazil, using the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Indicator 15.3.1 integrated with remote sensing data, spatial statistics, and environmental modeling. The indicator combines three sub-components primary productivity, land cover, and soil organic carbon derived from MODIS, ESA CCI, and SoilGrids datasets for the period 2001–2020. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated using global and Local Moran’s I, and the drivers of degradation, stability, and improvement were analyzed through multinomial logistic regression incorporating a spatial lag term. The results indicate that most peatlands in the study area remain stable or show signs of improvement, while degradation is spatially clustered and restricted to specific areas. Hydrological and topographic variables emerged as the main factors controlling peatland condition, highlighting the spatially structured nature of degradation and recovery processes. Our findings demonstrate the resilience of tropical montane peatlands under current land-use conditions and confirm their role as long-term carbon reservoirs. The SDG 15.3.1 indicator proved to be an effective tool for diagnosing peatland condition and identifying priority areas for conservation. This study provides a scalable and spatially explicit framework to support peatland monitoring, conservation planning, and the implementation of sustainable land management policies in tropical mountain regions.