METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE SHADOW ECONOMY: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE AND MODERN APPROACHES

This article presents a systematic comparative analysis of the principal methodological approaches employed in assessing the shadow economy, encompassing direct survey-based methods, indirect macroeconomic indicator methods, and model-based econometric approaches — most notably the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model and the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) framework. Drawing on empirical evidence from Italy, Brazil, South Korea, and Estonia, the study examines how rigorous measurement methodology underpins effective policy intervention. Special attention is given to the applicability of these approaches to transition economies, with a particular focus on Uzbekistan. The findings indicate that no single method achieves universal accuracy; rather, an integrated approach combining the MIMIC model with the currency demand method yields the most robust estimates in developing and transition country contexts. The study also identifies emerging methodological challenges posed by digitalization and cryptocurrency transactions, which render conventional indicators increasingly insufficient. Practical policy recommendations are advanced for strengthening shadow economy monitoring in Uzbekistan, including the establishment of a dedicated statistical unit, harmonization with OECD and IMF standards, and targeted formalization incentives.