Economic and environmental factors influencing beef production in high-income countries: Panel evidence

As the global population grows, dietary patterns are shifting towards protein-rich foods, with beef production playing a critical role in balancing food security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. Among income groups, high-income countries exhibit relatively stable, yet elevated levels of beef production compared to others, warranting focused investigation. This study evaluates the causal effects of beef consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, gross domestic product, and trade openness on beef production across 42 high-income countries from 1993 to 2022. A panel regression model with country-specific fixed effects is employed to control for unobserved heterogeneity, as supported by panel specification tests. Additionally, a simple moving average method is used to forecast short-term trends in beef production for 2023–2026. The findings reveal that there is no significant evidence to claim that there is an effect of beef consumption and gross domestic product on beef production. In contrast, trade openness negatively influences production, while greenhouse gas emissions exhibit a positive effect. Forecast results indicate increasing beef production in countries such as Uruguay, New Zealand, Ireland, Australia, Canada, and the United States. The study offers policy-relevant insights for governments and international organisations in aligning livestock production strategies with Sustainable Development Goals. • Examines beef production impacts across 42 high-income countries. • Uses panel regression and forecasting to analyse key drivers. • Trade openness reduces, while GHG emissions increase beef production. • Provides future beef production trends up to 2026. • Offers policy insights aligned with SDGs on food and climate action.