Autonomous vehicles and public transit incentives: A Case study of Waymo’s pilot transit credit program in the San Francisco Bay Area

• Waymo’s $3 transit credit pilot encouraged AV and public transit trip-linking. • 69% of recipients connected to transit; 50% would have otherwise used rideshare. • 80% of surveyed non-users said they would participate if the program were available. • Cost, convenience, and safety were the strongest drivers of participation. • Targeted AV first/last-mile incentives may support transit access and reduce car dependence. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a pilot transit credit program launched by Waymo in the San Francisco Bay Area, which offered riders a $3 incentive to use an AV rideshare service in conjunction with nearby public transit stations. Using structured survey data, we explore how the incentive influenced travel behavior, mode substitution, and public transit connectivity. Results indicate that 69% of participants connected to transit, while 50% of these riders would have otherwise used privately paid rideshare and some would have used their private vehicle or walked or cycled. The remaining 38% of participants would have used transit to reach the public transit station. The study offers critical insights for transit agencies and mobility providers aiming to design integrated AV-transit systems that serve the public good. While there is a risk of misallocating funds to individuals already willing and able to pay for rideshare services, these findings suggest that targeted subsidies may influence mode choice and support multimodal travel in a pilot context. Despite the exploratory nature of the study, the results highlight a potential pathway for transit agencies to experiment with incentive-based integration strategies in partnership with emerging mobility providers.