Numerical Simulation of Water Table Dynamics Under Tidal Influence for Construction Planning in a Coastal Urban Area of Mazatlán, México

Coastal construction projects often require excavation below the water table, where tidal variability and urban infrastructure generate complex groundwater conditions. This study presents a numerical simulation of water table dynamics in a coastal urban area of Mazatlán, México, influenced by tidal forcing, a lake, and an impermeable seawall. Six critical scenarios were modeled using MODFLOW 6 and ModelMuse interface, covering the period from November 2023 to April 2024. The scenarios correspond to astronomical tide events during the new moon phase, when maximum and minimum tide levels occurred within 24 h. These conditions are related to the highest piezometric levels observed in field. Model calibration was based on 18 field observations collected at 09:00, 12:00, and 15:00 across the selected dates. Model outputs closely matched the field observations, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.056 m, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.049 m. Although the differences are minimal, they reflect short-term variability and limited fluctuation during calibration. However, the full monitoring period showed groundwater levels ranging from −0.10 to 0.53 m above mean sea level (masl), emphasizing the importance of understanding short-term dynamics. This modeling approach supports construction planning, helping to anticipate risks and promote better and informed construction practices.