Quantifying Carbon Leakage from Renewable Shortfalls in China’s Power System under Future Scenarios

, equivalent to about 4% of China's 2020 power-sector emissions. Renewable power deficits remain concentrated in central and eastern load centers, whereas the associated carbon leakage is more spatially dispersed and extends into major electricity-exporting regions. The drivers of leakage also shift seasonally. Power load remains the dominant year-round driver, while the seasonal drivers of leakage shift from temperature-driven demand in winter and summer to wind and solar variability in spring and autumn. These results indicate that managing renewable shortfalls is essential not only for maintaining reliability but also for avoiding structurally embedded rebound emissions during deep power-sector decarbonization.