Feasibility Screening of River Basin Management Plan Delivery Under War-Driven Uncertainty: The Ukrainian Tisza Sub-Basin (2025–2030)

River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) developed under the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) assume stable monitoring, institutional continuity, and predictable implementation capacity—conditions that are undermined by war-driven uncertainty. This study assesses the feasibility of delivering the 2025–2030 RBMP in the Ukrainian Tisza sub-basin using a combined approach that integrates structured document analysis, a measure-level dataset derived from the Programme of Measures annexes, and a feasibility-screening framework linking expected environmental contribution, implementation dependency, and evidence readiness. The empirical basis covers 120 planned measures in a transboundary sub-basin with a large and heterogeneous surface-water portfolio. While surface-water monitoring remained operational in 2023, groundwater evidence was critically constrained because monitoring had been discontinued since 2018, and groundwater status and risk assessments had not been completed by the end of 2023. The analysis identifies a compliance-critical subset of high-contribution, high-dependency measures, particularly capital-intensive wastewater, monitoring, and groundwater-related interventions, whose implementation and verification are most vulnerable to wartime disruption. The study proposes an evidence-gap closure sequence and a verification-ready prioritisation logic for the 2025–2030 cycle, offering a transferable framework for stress-testing RBMP delivery in transboundary basins under high uncertainty.