The future of LNG as a marine fuel: cost, compliance, and continued growth?

The maritime industry’s transition to alternative fuels is accelerating under tightening emissions regulation, though progress remains uneven. Following the International Maritime Organization’s reaffirmation of a 2050 net-zero ambition – and the postponement of its Net-Zero Framework – near-term compliance is increasingly shaped by regional measures such as FuelEU Maritime, the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS), and the UK ETS. In this context, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has emerged as the most scaled and commercially viable near-term compliance option. Global LNG bunkering volumes have grown rapidly, reaching nearly 4.7 million tonnes in 2025, supported by strong fleet expansion and significant investment in ship-to-ship bunkering infrastructure. However, LNG uptake varies markedly by vessel segment, reflecting high sensitivity to relative fuel prices. With the LNG-capable fleet projected to reach around 1670 vessels by 2030, LNG’s medium-term role appears well supported. Its longer-term relevance will depend on regulatory clarity and the successful integration of bio-LNG and, eventually, e-LNG into the fuel mix.