Import Substitution or Carbon Lock‐In: Which One Drove AMLO's Energy Policy?

ABSTRACT The main purpose of this article is to understand the driving forces behind AMLO's energy policy (2018–2024) within a political and institutional context that prioritized energy sovereignty and a deep nationalism. While the return of the state to a sector that had been largely liberalized during the previous administration was accompanied by the revival of an openly extractivist approach, we examine two principles that may have influenced this dynamic and consider the extent to which each shaped this new statist, protectionist, and extractivist framework: import substitution, on the one hand, and the theory of carbon lock‐in, on the other. Before assessing the explanatory relevance of each hypothesis, we briefly recall the differences between energy policy and commitments to decarbonization across the two preceding administrations (2012–2018 and 2018–2024). A detailed analysis of the major decisions taken during AMLO's administration allows us to demonstrate the greater explanatory power of the carbon lock‐in theory over the ISI model. Finally, in conclusion, we draw attention to several issues that, in our view, warrant further research—namely, the consequences of this attachment to fossil fuels and its relationship with a nationalist and protectionist context.