Government Information and Popular Reactions in Autocracies: An Information-Correction Experiment on COVID-19 in Kazakhstan

How do citizens in autocracies respond to government-provided information? While scholars have explored various forms of information manipulation used by autocrats, we still know little about how the dissemination of government statistics affects public perceptions and behavior in everyday life. In a survey experiment conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kazakhstan, we investigate whether government-provided data and message influence citizens’ risk perceptions and behavioral intentions. After asking respondents to estimate the number of infections and deaths during the pandemic, we corrected their estimates using official statistics or exposed them to a message that optimistically interprets the statistics, with the information source randomly attributed either to the Kazakh government or the World Health Organization. Our findings suggest that government-provided information did not significantly alter respondents’ perceptions of the virus. These results indicate that citizens in autocracies may not always be decisively influenced by government information manipulation.