Development of a longitudinal predictive model for hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis B
]) + (1.052 × log₁₀AFP) + (1.817 × cirrhosis). In the test cohort, the PSU HCC score demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-index 0.909; 95% CI, 0.870-0.947) and good calibration, outperforming ALBI, aMAP, REACH-B, CU-HCC, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B scores. Risk stratification revealed significantly higher cumulative HCC incidence among patients in the high-risk group. Sensitivity analyses evaluating longer-term prediction at 3 and 5 years confirmed stable and robust performance. The PSU HCC score is a longitudinal prediction model that integrates dynamic clinical and laboratory parameters and provides superior HCC risk prediction in patients with CHB. This approach may support individualized, risk-based HCC surveillance strategies.
Authors
- Paramee Thongsuksai (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4226-7988)
- Pimsiri Sripongpun (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0007-8214)
- Thammasin Ingviya (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8894-3817)
- Naichaya Chamroonkul (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5753-7939)
- Teerha Piratvisuth (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5249-9208)
- Apichat Kaewdech (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4058-5977)
- Chanavee Toh
- Suthat Liangpunsakul (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6504-8123)
- Pisit Tangkijvanich (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2926-8671)
Institutions
- Prince of Songkla University (TH)
- Chulalongkorn University (TH)
- Indiana University School of Medicine
- Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2026-05-12
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47600-9
- Primary Topic
- Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Abbott Laboratories
- Prince of Songkla University
- Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University