Spatial Modelling of Groundwater Potential Zones Using GIS-Based Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Abuja, Nigeria

In many African nations, including Nigeria, groundwater remains the most readily available source of clean water. However, finding and developing these resources in heterogeneous terrain, such as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, is challenging due to the uneven distribution of the aquifers and complex geological settings. Using a GIS-based machine learning approach that incorporates surface and subsurface hydrogeological parameters, this study defines groundwater potential zones (GWPZ). Nine conditioning factors were derived from remote sensing, geophysical and climatic datasets. Aquifer thickness, depth to bedrock, geology, rainfall, slope, LULC, lineament density, drainage density and distance from river were among these variables. Three machine learning models: Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) were trained and validated using 2410 borehole records (productive and abortive). Hold-out validation (80:20), 10-fold cross-validation, ROC-AUC, and confusion matrix were used to assess each model’s performance. The ensemble models outperformed the SVM, achieving higher predictive accuracy and better generalisation (XGBoost: 0.89, RF: 0.88 and SVM: 0.87). The generated maps categorised the study area into five GWPZs: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. These findings provide a scientific foundation for groundwater exploration and sustainable water resource management in the study area.