Stolen Guns: Predictors of Theft and Crime Gun Recovery in California

Theft is widely recognized as an important source of guns to offenders, yet direct evidence remains limited. Using linked California administrative records (2010–2021) on firearm transactions, thefts, and crime recoveries, we examine characteristics associated with reported theft and, among stolen guns, predictors of recovery in crime. Cox models show theft risk factors closely mirror established correlates for law enforcement recovery: low-cost, medium- and large-caliber handguns and firearms purchased by younger, male, Black, or previously arrested buyers faced elevated theft risk. Among female purchasers, recent high-volume handgun buying was associated with substantially higher theft hazard, suggestive of straw purchasing. Among stolen firearms with prior retail records, shorter purchase-to-theft time strongly predicted recovery, suggesting rapid diversion into criminal circulation.