The Circumplex of Personality Metatraits and political behavior: Predicting turnout and major party choice across six Polish elections

Abstract This article applies the Circumplex of Personality Metatraits (CPM) to predict electoral participation and party choice. Across three studies conducted on representative samples of Poles (total N = 2936), respondents reported their voting behavior in six elections held between 2011 and 2025 (covering parliamentary, presidential, and European contests). The results demonstrate that the CPM offers a comprehensive framework that not only outperforms the Big Five in predictive validity but also reveals the systemic psychological underpinnings of political behavior. Voter turnout was consistently driven by sectors responsible for social regulation and stability—Alpha‐Plus, Gamma‐Plus, and Delta‐Plus—whereas abstention was rooted in psychological withdrawal, distrust, and disharmony (Gamma‐Minus, Alpha‐Minus). Support for the liberal Civic Coalition (KO) reflected a desire for intellectual novelty and personal autonomy (Beta‐Plus, Delta‐Minus) anchored in social cooperation (Gamma‐Plus). Conversely, the Law and Justice party (PiS) strongly aligned with the “grievance politics” hypothesis, drawing its core support from sectors defined by ressentiment and hostility (Gamma‐Minus, Alpha‐Minus) rather than traditional conservatism (Delta‐Plus). However, the analysis also revealed that PiS successfully mobilized the stability‐oriented Alpha‐Plus sector, thereby forming a heterogeneous coalition of rebellious disruptors (Alpha‐Minus) and stability‐seeking rationalists (Alpha‐Plus). These patterns were largely consistent across the election cycles.