Concrete Damage Plasticity Model Application to Predict Stress–Strain Behavior of Impermeable Strata in Deep Rock Salt Deposits

Maintaining the integrity of impermeable strata between mine workings and overlying aquifers is critical, because seepage pathways may cause mine flooding and surface subsidence. In the Upper Kama potash deposit, the impermeable sequence is a 50–140 m thick layered sequence of evaporites and clays overlying mined-out chambers. Under long-term loading, salt rocks tend to creep, soften, and localize damage, which can cause failure in the impermeable strata. In this paper, the Concrete damage-plasticity model, supplemented by the N2PC-MCT viscoplastic creep model, is applied to simulate the initiation and evolution of seepage pathways in the Upper Kama impermeable strata. Model parameters are obtained from published laboratory tests (uniaxial and triaxial compression and tension) and validated using observed ground-surface subsidence. A plane-strain finite-element model incorporates the stratified lithology, interface elements between layers, and sequential excavation. Long-term simulations up to 50 years investigate two operational scenarios: with and without backfilling. The calibrated model reproduces the main stages of surface subsidence and chamber closure. Without backfilling, simulations indicate that tensile damage localizes mainly in a stiff central salt layer of the impermeable strata, with most cracks appearing approximately between 33 and 37 years after the start of mining. With backfill, tensile crack propagation stops and damage remains stable. A hypothetical homogeneous impermeable strata case confirms that the observed central-layer cracking is associated with stiffness contrasts and composite bending in the stratified system. An approximate analytical multilayer beam solution, based on energy minimization, predicts bending stress concentration in stiff intermediate layers and is consistent with the numerical stress distribution. The combined numerical and analytical results provide insight into the mechanisms of long-term conductive fracture initiation in stratified impermeable strata and may serve as a basis for preliminary hazard indication and for planning mitigation measures, including backfilling and focused monitoring of stiff central layers. Because the study is based on a 2D plane-strain model, the quantitative estimates should be regarded as preliminary and require verification by 3D modelling and further field observations.