Regional Electricity Interconnections for the Clean Energy Transitions in East Africa: Evidence from an Open-Source Energy System Model

Regional electricity interconnections are increasingly recognised as enablers of cost-effective power system expansion, resilience and energy security in emerging economies. In East Africa, Kenya and neighbouring countries, namely Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Uganda, operate relatively low-carbon electricity systems; however, rapidly growing electricity demand and expanding thermal generation are placing upward pressure on grid emissions intensity. This study examines whether planned cross-border interconnections can mitigate this trajectory using OSeMOSYS Global v1.0.0, an open-source least-cost capacity expansion model, comparing stand-alone national power systems against an interconnected regional grid over 2022–2045. Results show that interconnection enables access to low-cost renewable electricity and facilitates surplus generation exports, maintaining system-wide carbon intensity within climate finance eligibility thresholds of 100 gCO2/kWh. Outcomes are heterogeneous: Ethiopia and Kenya incur cost increases (+USD 481 million and +USD 568 million, respectively) attributable to transmission capital expenditure, whereas Tanzania and Uganda achieve net cost savings (−USD 590 million and −USD 891 million) alongside substantial emissions intensity reductions of 141.9 and 280.5 gCO2/kWh, respectively. Regional emissions equity is preserved, with modest intensity increases in Ethiopia and Kenya offset by large reductions elsewhere. These findings strengthen the case for climate-financed regional transmission as a scalable and equitable mitigation strategy in East Africa.