Resilience and Sustainability of Aquifers Under Climatic and Agricultural Pressure

Sustainable groundwater management in regions subjected to intensive agricultural pressure requires reliable simulation tools capable of anticipating the impacts of climate change. However, in overexploited multilayer aquifers such as Tierra del Vino, locally calibrated predictive tools capable of quantifying climate-driven piezometric decline remain scarce. This study develops a numerical groundwater flow model using MODFLOW for the Tierra del Vino aquifer (Spain), a multilayer detrital system currently characterized by a critical quantitative status. Agricultural irrigation accounts for approximately 94% of total groundwater withdrawals, making it the dominant anthropogenic pressure on the system. The model was manually calibrated through more than 500 iterations, achieving a consistent representation of groundwater dynamics. Statistical evaluation based on groundwater level data from 34 piezometric monitoring points distributed across the aquifer yielded a good fit (NSE = 0.816; R = 0.928), supporting the suitability of the model for scenario analysis. Under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario, aquifer recharge could decrease by 31.75%, resulting in a significant piezometric decline within the system. At the representative well selected for the farm-scale agricultural impact analysis, this decline reaches 3.33 m and is used to evaluate its effect on pumping energy costs. The implementation of management measures proposed by the water authority reduces this decline to 1.84 m, although overexploitation conditions persist. These results indicate that current administrative restrictions are insufficient on their own and that future management should adjust abstraction rights to projected recharge conditions, maintaining the exploitation index below 0.8 to reduce the risk of long-term overexploitation. In this context, aquifer resilience is interpreted as the capacity of the groundwater system to respond to the combined pressures of climate change and agricultural abstraction while maintaining its hydrological functioning.