Scenario-based ecological network dynamics in coastal wetlands: An integrated FLUS-MSPA-circuit theory framework for the Western Bohai Bay

Rapid urbanization and intensive coastal development have exerted increasing pressure on ecological connectivity and regional security in the Western Bohai Bay. However, existing research often emphasizes single-dimensional ecological assessments, failing to elucidate the dynamic feedback mechanisms between ecosystem services and spatial network structures under complex development pressures. To bridge this gap, this study develops an integrated framework that couples ecosystem service assessment, circuit theory-based connectivity modeling, and multi-scenario land-use simulation to quantitatively evaluate the response of ecological network configurations to alternative development pathways. The results show that: (1) A total of 355 ecological corridors were identified, forming an effective north–south reticulate network. Critical pinch points were detected in areas of high development intensity, indicating key hubs that are highly sensitive to disturbance. (2) Land-use simulations for 2030 reveal pronounced scenario-dependent trajectories. The economic development scenario leads to substantial conversion of cropland and wetlands into artificial surfaces, whereas the wetland conservation scenario effectively constrains built-up land expansion and maintains landscape stability. (3) Ecological corridor responses differ markedly across scenarios. The economic development scenario results in fewer but longer corridors, reflecting increased fragmentation, while the wetland conservation scenario generates the most connected and resilient network. These findings not only underscore the importance of wetland-oriented conservation strategies but also provide valuable insights for optimizing coastal spatial patterns in the Western Bohai Bay, offering a scientific basis for mitigating ecological risks induced by intensive development and promoting regional sustainable development. • A scenario-driven integrated framework was developed for coastal wetland ecological network analysis , coupling FLUS land-use simulation, InVEST ecosystem service assessment, MSPA-based landscape structure analysis, and circuit theory connectivity modeling. • Ecological sources were identified by integrating ecosystem functional importance and spatial structural integrity , improving source delineation reliability in highly disturbed coastal landscapes. • Distinct scenario-dependent responses of ecological network structure and connectivity were revealed , quantifying how economic development and wetland conservation pathways reshape corridor configuration and network robustness. • Critical and scenario-consistent ecological pinch points were detected , providing spatially explicit priorities for coastal wetland restoration and ecological spatial planning.