Spatiotemporal Variability, Trends, and Projected Evolution of Aerosols over the Arabian Peninsula

Abstract This study examines the long-term variability, seasonality, trends, and 10-year forecasting of aerosol loading across the Arabian Peninsula (AP) using MERRA-2 reanalysis data and MODIS satellite observations (2000–2024). Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), dust, Sulfate (SO 4 ), Black Carbon (BC), Organic Carbon (OC), and Sea Salt (SS) are analyzed over Dubai, Kuwait City, and Riyadh using the Zhang trend detection method and the Prophet Additive Time-series Forecasting framework. Aerosol loading is highly seasonal; summer (JJA) AOD peaks at 0.6–1.0, driven by dust activity, high temperatures, and low mixing heights, while winter (DJF) values are lowest (0.2–0.4). Dust dominates aerosol mass, reaching 350–450 µg m − 3 in Riyadh and 250–350 µg m − 3 in Dubai and Kuwait during summer. SO 4 concentrations are elevated in the eastern AP owing to industrial sources, while BC and OC peak in summer due to combustion emissions and secondary aerosol formation. Statistically significant positive trends in AOD, BC, SO 4 , dust, and surface air temperature are identified over Kuwait and Riyadh. Prophet forecasting projects continued increases in aerosol loading and BC concentrations over the next decade, indicating heightened dust events, reduced visibility, and growing public health risks. These results underscore the combined influence of natural dust processes and anthropogenic emissions on air quality in the AP, highlighting the need for region-specific mitigation strategies. Graphical Abstract This graphical abstract represents a visual summary and the comprehensive overview of the manuscript, “Long-Term Variability of Aerosol Loadings, Optical Properties and Forecasting over Arabian Peninsula.” It presents a robust satellite-based (MODIS and MERRA-2) analysis of a significantly increasing trend in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) across the Arabian Peninsula from 2000 to 2024, with a forecast indicating continued atmospheric quality degradation through 2034. The research identifies a potent combination of natural mineral dust and anthropogenic sulfates as the dominant contributors to the aerosol load, which exhibits strong seasonality peaking in summer. These findings have profound implications for the Earth system, including regional climate forcing through atmospheric temperature rise, and direct societal consequences such as severe visibility reduction impacting aviation safety and a growing public health crisis from exposure to particulate matter. The graphical abstract serves as a visual demonstration of the manuscript’s in-depth analysis of a deteriorating environmental issue, integrating both natural processes and anthropogenic activities.