Model-Based Panel Analysis of Meat Condemnation in Sokoto Main Abattoir, Nigeria

Meat condemnation at slaughterhouses reflects the rate of animal diseases, economic losses, and potential public health risks. In northern Nigeria, however, longitudinal and model-based assessments of condemnation patterns using routine abattoir data remain limited. This study aimed to quantify species- and disease-specific meat condemnation rates, examine short-term temporal variation during the study period, and identify predictors of condemnation at the Sokoto State Main Abattoir. A retrospective panel analysis of aggregated abattoir data with repeated temporal observations was conducted using abattoir meat inspection records from January to June 2025. Condemnation rates per 1000 animals slaughtered were calculated by species, disease category, and month. Short-term temporal variation within the study period and associated factors were evaluated using negative binomial regression with an offset for slaughter volume. These rates reflect the number of condemned organs recorded relative to the number of animals slaughtered, as multiple organs may be condemned from a single animal during post-mortem inspection. Model adequacy was assessed through dispersion diagnostics, multicollinearity checks, residual analyses, sensitivity analyses, and predictive calibration using observed versus model-predicted rates. A total of 317,685 animals were slaughtered during the study period, with 1628 condemnation cases, corresponding to an overall condemnation rate of 5.12 per 1000 animals slaughtered (95% CI: 4.88–5.38). Condemnation rates varied markedly by species, with camels exhibiting the highest monthly rates (140.05 per 1000 animals slaughtered), followed by cattle (51.80 per 1000 animals slaughtered), sheep (40.62 per 1000 animals slaughtered), and goats (22.19 per 1000 animals slaughtered) during the study period. Disease-specific analyses identified contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, fascioliasis, hydatidosis, and tuberculosis-like lesions as major contributors to condemnation. Temporal patterns demonstrated non-linear monthly variation, with elevated rates in mid-study months. The final negative binomial model showed good calibration, with close agreement between observed and predicted rates across species and diseases. Meat condemnation at the Sokoto State abattoir demonstrates substantial heterogeneity by species, disease, and time. Priority conditions such as contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), fascioliasis, hydatidosis, and tuberculosis-like lesions warrant targeted control efforts. These findings reinforce the value of routinely collected abattoir data as a practical and robust component of animal health surveillance in resource-limited settings.