Subsistence hunting shapes the spatial variation of jaguar densities in community‐managed forests

Abstract Jaguars are declining in the Americas due to habitat loss and conflict with humans, yet some strategies offer possibilities to balance human and jaguar needs. Certified reduced‐impact selective logging (RIL) provides a land‐sharing framework for sustainable forest management and biodiversity conservation. Since subsistence hunting occurs in some certified RIL areas, understanding the capacity of these areas to support jaguar populations is essential for jaguar conservation planning and validation that certification standards are being met. We used large‐scale camera trapping to estimate the impact of subsistence hunting on jaguar densities within the community‐managed forest of Uaxactún and two protected areas in Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve. Human access, measured as walking time from settlements, was a proxy for subsistence hunting pressure. Using spatial capture–recapture, we modeled spatial variation in density as a function of structural habitat covariates, prey defaunation index, human access, and protection type. We found that structural habitat did not influence jaguar density; however, their density was positively associated with less accessible areas (effect: 1.36, se = 1.16), indicating a 36% increase in jaguar density every 6.23 walking hours. Jaguar densities ranged from 1.15 to 2.85 jaguars/100 km 2 in Uaxactún and 1.26 to 4.78 jaguars/100 km 2 in remote Mirador‐Rio Azul National Park (MRANP) areas. The overall density was 2.39 individuals/100 km 2 , translating to a population of 50 individuals (95% CI: 48–51) in MRANP and Uaxactún. This relationship quantification provides information to improve predictive conservation science and jaguar conservation planning. Understanding the influence of human access on jaguar population density can help guide the management of subsistence hunting in RIL areas. Although densities were lower in Uaxactún, we still registered jaguars near the community, and the density there demonstrated that inhabited‐certified forests can support jaguar populations while sustaining traditional livelihoods.