Data-Driven Peak Demand Identification in Commercial Electricity Consumption for Load Curve Flattening

Effective peak load management enables utilities to mitigate increased electricity demand and optimize the use of available resources during periods of maximum consumption. Accurate forecasting of the peak load is essential for ensuring the reliability, efficiency, and resilience of contemporary power systems. In this study, commercial customer-level data were employed to identify electricity peak demand within the Polish power system, drawing upon historical records of both energy consumption and meteorological variables. Departing from conventional time series forecasting approaches, the problem was intentionally reformulated as a pattern recognition task. Three classification techniques were systematically evaluated to identify individual customers’ peak load events, thereby offering a basis for demand-side management strategies and incentive mechanisms aimed at flattening load profiles and improving grid stability. The proposed approach demonstrates how data-driven analytics can support utilities in extracting actionable knowledge from large-scale energy datasets and enabling proactive demand response programs. Empirical results indicate that the proposed methods are capable of predicting up to 90% of electricity peak occurrences, with a forecasting horizon of 24 h leading to significant shifts in the load curve.