Projected hydrological responses to climate change in a high-mountain river basin based on RCM simulations

This study assesses future hydrological responses of the Chitral River Basin (CRB), a high-mountain, glacier-fed catchment in northern Pakistan, under climate change. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was forced with bias-corrected outputs from three CORDEX regional climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios for the period 2010-2099. Projected temperature increases range from 2.34 °C to 5.23 °C by the late century, while precipitation changes vary between 2.42% and 6%. These changes induce a shift in seasonal streamflow, with peak discharge advancing to June-July. Simulated streamflow responses indicate that warming may alter seasonal runoff timing through enhanced snow and ice melt processes. However, because the adopted SWAT configuration assumes static glacier area, projected late-century reductions should be interpreted as climate-driven hydrological responses rather than direct simulations of progressive glacier depletion. The results highlight substantial uncertainty in future annual flow magnitude across climate models and bias-correction methods, while consistently indicating sensitivity of runoff timing to climatic warming. These findings underline the need for adaptive water-management strategies in the Chitral River Basin.