How Does Agricultural Digital Infrastructure Construction Empower High-Quality Agricultural Development? The Mediating Roles of Green Technology Innovation and Farmland Scale Management

Agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) serves as the core driver and a critical benchmark for high-quality agricultural development. Utilizing panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2012–2023), this study examines the impact, mechanisms, and heterogeneity of agricultural digital infrastructure construction (ADIC) on ATFP. Results show that digital infrastructure significantly promotes ATFP with a distinct non-linear acceleration. Specifically, once development surpasses a critical threshold (1.5416), marginal contributions increase substantially, marking a transition of digital dividends from “accumulation” to “explosive release.” Mediation analysis identifies green technological innovation and farmland scale management as key pathways, accounting for 11.4% and 12.5% of the total effect, respectively. This confirms ADIC enhances ATFP through a technical innovation effect and a scale operation effect. Regional heterogeneity is significant: digital infrastructure yields significant positive impacts on main food consumption and balanced areas, whereas results for main grain-producing areas remain statistically insignificant. Based on these conclusions, it is recommended that policymakers maintain strategic focus by proactively deploying rural digital infrastructure to surpass critical thresholds, implementing differentiated regional strategies, and effectively translating digital dividends into endogenous momentum for high-quality agricultural development through the integrated application of green technologies and the improvement of farmland transfer service systems.