Attribute Analysis and Quantitative Estimation of Runoff Reduction in the Upper Yangtze River Basin Under Changing Environment

Under the influence of climate change and human activities, hydrologic regime and runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB) have exhibited significant alterations. This study aims to address the primary drivers of runoff change and the destination of runoff reduction. Based on hydro-meteorological data from 1980 to 2022 and other related datasets, the temporal trend in hydro-meteorological variables was analyzed, and the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff were quantified using the SWAT model. The destination of runoff reduction was also addressed based on the water balance equation. The SWAT model was calibrated using a top-down sequential strategy at five hydrological stations. The results show that despite a slight increase in precipitation and a pronounced rise in potential evapotranspiration, the annual average runoff at Yichang station is decreased by 22.3 billion m3. The SWAT model can simulate the monthly runoff hydrograph well with the NSE exceeding 0.85 during calibration and validation periods in the UYRB. Attribution analysis reveals that the contribution rate of climate change and human activities on runoff are 36.21% and 63.79% at the Yichang station, respectively. The annual average runoff change can be attributed to four pathways: (1) actual evapotranspiration increases due to land use and land cover (LULC) change and basin greening (−12.85 billion m3); (2) water intake and consumption increase (−2.94 billion m3); (3) reservoir dead storage impoundment (−3.34 billion m3); and (4) ground water storage variations (−3.21 billion m3). These findings highlight the impact of human water abstraction and land use change on runoff, providing a scientific basis for water resource management in the UYRB.