Capacity planning for solar module recycling in the EU: Optimal country-specific strategies and raw material price sensitivities

This study advances the understanding of the economic viability of solar module recycling within the context of recent EU policy frameworks, including binding targets for recycled materials and domestic technology sourcing in the solar sector. The core objective is to determine cost-effective recycling capacities for closed-loop solar module recycling across the EU, with a focus on country-level dynamics and the influence of raw material price fluctuations. The analysis aims to derive system-level insights on recycling capacity planning rather than to differentiate between specific PV module technologies. Accordingly, technology-specific variations in material composition are not explicitly modeled. We propose an optimization-based analysis to identify country-specific, cost-optimal recycling capacities under various scenarios, focusing on crystalline silicon module technologies with representative material compositions. The model optimizes the capacity mix between domestic recycling, landfilling, stockpiling, intra-EU trade, and export to third countries. A sensitivity analysis further examined how these capacities respond to fluctuations in solar scrap material prices. Our findings reveal that Italy and Germany emerge as pioneers in this sector, while France, Spain, and the Czech Republic also install significant capacities, with the latter only under high material price scenarios. Domestic stockpiling—defined as the temporary storage of solar PV scrap for later recycling—proves to be an effective strategy for ensuring continuous and higher utilization rates of recycling facilities. Notably, stockpiling also significantly reduces the need for landfilling, highlighting its potential to enhance the sustainability of the EU's solar PV recycling sector. Overall, the study confirms that stringent EU policies such as the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act are essential for ramping up recycling capacities.