Impacts of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of Dioscorea zingiberensis, a Traditional Medicinal Plant in China

D. zingiberensis C. H. Wright is a medicinally significant herbaceous vine endemic to China. Investigating the geographical distribution and migration routes of D. zingiberensis is crucial for the rational utilization and conservation of its genetic resources. However, the potential shifts in the distribution patterns of wild populations under different climate scenarios remain poorly understood. Based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, this study reveals significant range shifts in D. zingiberensis under future climate scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6, highly suitable habitats are projected to occur in Shaanxi, Hubei, Sichuan, and Gansu by the 2050s, with total suitable areas peaking at 211.41 × 104 km2. In contrast, the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario drives marked habitat contraction, with a core loss of 82.47 × 104 km2 by the 2070s, particularly in the central and southwestern provinces (e.g., Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei, and Hunan). Centroid migration analysis indicates a pronounced northward shift; under SSP5-8.5, the centroid moves linearly northwestward by 205.43 km from Hubei to Sichuan, reflecting a sustained migration towards higher latitudes. These results underscore D. zingiberensis’s vulnerability to high-emission climates and its adaptive migration towards more suitable northwestern habitats. These findings provide critical information and a scientific basis for the conservation and sustainable utilization of wild medicinal resources of D. zingiberensis.