Tailoring Prevention and Control Strategies for Childhood Tuberculosis: From a Global Analysis of Burden Trends and Inequalities Across Three Age Groups (1990–2021) to Prevention and Control Strategies

Background: Childhood tuberculosis (TB) is a major but underappreciated threat to human health. Because diagnosis of tuberculosis in children is difficult, there are a lack of accurate global statistics. This study aimed to comprehensively assess the long-term global, regional, and age-specific burden of childhood TB from 1990 to 2021, to examine its temporal trends and socioeconomic inequalities, and to project future patterns through 2045. Methods: We used incidence and mortality data from the GBD 2021 database for TB in children ages 0–14 years from 1990 to 2021. Children were stratified into three age groups—<5, 5–9 and 10–14 years—and classified by region and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Multiple statistical approaches were employed, including average annual percentage change and Bayesian age-period-cohort models, to analyze spatiotemporal trends in disease burden and generate projections for the next 20 years. We used decomposition analysis to separate demographic from epidemiological drivers and concentration indices to quantify socioeconomic inequalities. Results: In 2021 there were, globally, an estimated 759,300 incident cases of childhood TB and 70,659 deaths. Since 1990, childhood TB incidence and mortality rates have declined at average annual rates of 2.61% and 4.48%, respectively. The SDI showed a significant negative correlation with both incidence and mortality of childhood TB (p < 0.05). In 2021, 78.01% of childhood TB deaths were in children under 5 years of age, and over 80% of global childhood TB deaths occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa. Epidemiological interventions were partly offset by rapid population growth in low-SDI regions. The trends show that the incidence and mortality will continue to decline through 2045, but not enough to meet the goal of eliminating childhood TB by 2035. Conclusions: Global efforts should adopt an age-specific framework that prioritizes universal preventive treatment to eliminate mortality in children under 5 years, and implements active case finding to reduce transmission chains among children 5–14 years. Sustaining the decrease in the TB burdens of low-SDI regions requires international financing strategies attuned to expanding populations to ensure epidemiological success is not erased by demographic growth.