Tipping the Balance: NCAA Labor Restrictions, Mobility, and Productivity

ABSTRACT The NCAA's 2021 relaxation of transfer restrictions created a large institutional shift in athlete mobility. Using NCAA Division I men's and women's basketball data from 2008 to 2025, we examine how this policy change affected transfer volume and sorting across programs. Transfers increased by 78% for men and 116% for women in the 4 years following the reform relative to the 4 years prior. Movement shifted toward Division I‐to‐Division I transfers, and descriptive evidence indicates stronger sorting across conference tiers. The mean player efficiency scores (PER) of transfers received by top‐tier programs increased, particularly for women, consistent with improved matching following the reduction in mobility frictions. Although the analysis focuses on observed movement rather than compensation, these patterns are consistent with possible underlying differences in total athlete compensation between programs. Limited data on athlete‐level NIL compensation preclude direct estimation of price effects, leaving this as an important direction for future research.