Digital Payment Infrastructure and E-Commerce Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Analysis

The transition from cash to digital payment instruments is reshaping retail commerce across Europe unevenly, with Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries exhibiting both some of the fastest growth and some of the lowest baseline levels in online shopping participation. This study examines whether the development of digital payment infrastructure proxied by the share of individuals using internet banking (NetBank) is associated with e-commerce adoption across eleven CEE EU member states over the period 2014–2023, yielding a balanced panel of 110 country-year observations. Drawing on harmonised data from Eurostat, the World Bank, and the ITU, we estimate a two-way fixed-effects model with kernel-robust standard errors and a dynamic specification with a lagged dependent variable. The results indicate that a one-standard-deviation improvement in internet banking penetration is associated with a 6.2 percentage point increase in the share of online shoppers once country and year fixed effects are controlled for, a finding that is precisely estimated under kernel standard errors (p < 0.001). Income-group heterogeneity analysis suggests that this association may be substantially larger in lower-income CEE countries (β = 6.9, p = 0.006) compared to higher-income ones (β = 2.3, p = 0.554), consistent with the hypothesis that payment infrastructure improvements generate the highest marginal returns where baseline access is lowest. Romania, despite recording the steepest absolute growth in online shopping in the EU over the sample period (+33 percentage points), remains persistently below the CEE median, illustrating how payment infrastructure constraints can slow convergence even during periods of rapid digitisation. The findings should be interpreted as robust conditional associations rather than causal effects, given the limitations of macro-panel identification.