Export Promotion With Matchmaking and Grants: Evidence From Portuguese Firms

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates two core export‐promotion tools: internationalization grants and matchmaking services provided by the Portuguese export promotion agency (AICEP). We merge administrative records with customs and firm data for 2012–2021. We employ an event‐study approach with firm and year fixed effects in a setup of staggered adoption of the programs. Internationalization grants increase treated firms' total exports by approximately 13%, while matchmaking services raise exports to France by approximately 32%. Effects are larger for micro and small firms (grants 18%; matchmaking 40%) and concentrated in traditional manufacturing sectors. Results also show that both export promotion programs are effective when supporting firms with a permanent presence in international markets, versus occasional exporters. Event‐study diagnostics show flat pre‐trends, and placebo and anticipation checks support identification. Complementarily, finite‐duration robustness tests show no rapid fadeout after 3 years, and a simple cost–benefit analysis indicates that both programs have favorable cost–benefit outcomes.