Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk
teleconnections, with limited evidence for wet teleconnections. Finally, the more regionally confined IOD also influences conflict, with both positive and negative phases elevating risk in strongly teleconnected regions, namely the Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia. These results reveal that modes of climate variability can differentially shape conflict risk, offering insight into societies' vulnerabilities to natural climate fluctuations and, by extension, anthropogenic climate change.
Authors
- Bomi K. Lee (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8010-9983)
- Diana Z. O’Brien (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3578-1321)
- Anna Stravato
- Tyler E. Bagwell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7910-6192)
- Frederi Viens (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9162-8212)
- Divya Saikumar
- Xinyue Luo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6048-3145)
- Sylvia G. Dee
- Justin S. Mankin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2520-4555)
Institutions
- Dartmouth College (US)
- Bucknell University (US)
- Washington University in St. Louis (US)
- Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau (CN)
- Rice University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2026-05-11
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2532935123
- Primary Topic
- Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00