The Dynamics of the Policy Mix and Sectoral Gaps in South Korea's Decarbonization Transition

ABSTRACT While a coherent policy mix is a fundamental prerequisite for successful energy transitions, existing frameworks predominantly rely on static evaluations. This horizontal approach fails to capture the deep temporal dynamics and physical inertia inherent in socio‐technical regime shifts. To address this gap, we conceptualize a five‐stage dynamic policy chain and track South Korea's macro‐systemic transition trajectory (2000–2022) across three key sectors (industrial, transport, and residential/building) using a dynamic cross‐correlation function (CCF). Here we demonstrate that South Korea's upstream policy inputs suffer from severe structural friction, creating an “illusion of innovation.” Although technology‐push policies induce simultaneous patent generation, these intangible outputs fail to translate into downstream physical deployment. Rather, actual deployment stages reveal highly divergent temporal trajectories. Notably, the transport and residential/building sectors exhibit substantial negative lags and reverse causality, revealing that rigid physical inertia forces policies to merely react rather than lead. Consequently, the mechanical tautology between expanding energy demand and carbon emissions remains unbroken over two decades, illustrating how deeply entrenched the carbon lock‐in remains. To dismantle these structural bottlenecks, policymakers must shift from static policy combinations to “dynamic sequencing”—precisely orchestrating the timing of interventions to match the distinct paces of different sectors.