Tourism, growth, cohesion and competitiveness: Effects in Portugal’s regions and low-density territories

This study examines the impact of tourism on regional development in Portugal from 2012 to 2019, focusing on NUTS-III regions to reduce aggregation bias and capture intra-regional disparities. Particular attention is given to Low-Density Territories (LDTs), marked by demographic fragility and structural disadvantages. Using multidimensional indices of Cohesion and Competitiveness and Spatial Durbin Models with spatial fixed effects, the analysis reveals that international tourism emerges as an effective driver of GDP growth, both locally and through spillovers, but its contribution to cohesion is ambiguous. In contrast, tourism in LDTs did not stimulate economic growth or social cohesion, although it strengthened competitiveness. The findings highlight a persistent decoupling between economic growth and development, challenging linear tourism-led growth assumptions and underscoring the need for place-based policies tailored to peripheral regions. Tourism should not be conceived as an inherent catalyst of convergence; instead, it represents a contingent and context-dependent process, conditioned by territorially embedded structures and differentiated institutional capacities.