Democracy in Question: US–China Rivalry and Shifting Political Perceptions in the Middle East

ABSTRACT This study investigates the influence of perceptions of the United States and China on individual support for democratic and non‐democratic governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), set against the backdrop of heightened global power rivalry in public discourse. This study shifts the emphasis from macro‐level patterns of authoritarian dissemination to micro‐level perspectives, evaluating how citizens perceive the governing regimes linked to these principal powers. The analysis, employing data from Arab Barometer Wave 8, explores the relationship between negative perceptions toward America and favorable sentiments toward China about preferences for democratic versus non‐democratic governance. The findings reveal clear correlations: intensified negative attitudes against the United States are associated with reduced support for democracy, whereas elevated positive sentiments toward China are linked to greater receptiveness to non‐democratic alternatives. These developments indicate a wider decline in the normative status of liberal democracy in certain regions of the Global South, where global competition increasingly influences the criteria by which individuals assess political systems. This study advances the existing discussion on authoritarian diffusion and democratic resilience by emphasizing individual‐level attitudes. It demonstrates that international power dynamics intersect with domestic political decisions, affecting voters' evaluations of various regime types.