Comparative Evaluation of Mortality Risk Prediction Tools After Emergency Laparotomy

BACKGROUND: Accurate pre-operative prediction of mortality after emergency laparotomy (EL) is essential as it may facilitate shared decision-making. The aim of our study was to compare the prognostic accuracy of three risk prediction tools following EL. METHODS: ≥ 0.40, excellent; ≥ 0.30, good; ≥ 0.20, moderate; < 0.20, poor) and accuracy was evaluated with the c-statistic (< 1.0, excellent; < 0.90, good; < 0.80, fair; < 0.70, poor). RESULTS: = 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: P-NELA was most accurate in predicting 30-day mortality after EL, while NZRISK performed least reliably in our cohort. These findings highlight the importance of providing external validation for different risk prediction tools within diverse populations to improve peri-operative planning.