A Methodological Comparison of Experimental Mobile Phone Data and Traditional Visitor Statistics for Analyzing Tourism Dynamics in the El Paular Valley Cultural Landscape (Rascafría, Madrid)

This study analyses visitor dynamics in the municipality of Rascafría, located within the El Paular Valley cultural landscape in the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (Spain). Rather than conducting a landscape value analysis, the research serves as a diagnostic test of the complementarity and divergence between two data sources: official visitor records from the National Park and experimental statistics derived from mobile phone geolocation data provided by the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). The methodology combines GIS-based cartographic representation with a battery of indicators to characterize the spatiotemporal structure of tourist flows. A central finding is the complementation between the two sources: INE mobile phone data exclude intra-provincial visitors from the Madrid region, which official records show constitute approximately 78% of total visitation. Consequently, mobile data portray an artificially national and international market profile (weighted average distance ≈ 211 km) that contradicts the well-documented proximity-based excursionism dominant in the area, evidencing a critical bias in INE data. The Spearman correlation (r = 0.64) between the two sources confirms that mobile data capture the general seasonal pattern but not the volume or the local nature of demand. The results underscore the potential of geolocated data for understanding non-metropolitan tourism structures, while simultaneously serving as a cautionary guide for heritage managers: “smart” data sources require heavy supplementation with traditional on-the-ground counting methods to accurately reflect the reality of proximity-based heritage consumption. The paper contributes a high-value methodological assessment for researchers and practitioners seeking to integrate experimental statistics into the management of protected cultural landscapes.