Coupling and Coordination Between China’s New Quality Productive Forces in Agriculture and Green Grain Production Capacity

With the continuous development of China’s agricultural modernization, the coordination between new quality productive forces in agriculture and green grain production capacity has become increasingly important. This paper takes 30 provinces in China as the research objects, and constructs an evaluation index system for new quality productive forces in agriculture and green grain production capacity. Based on the entropy method, the improved coupling coordination degree model, and the gray relational degree model, it analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and key influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development between new quality productive forces in agriculture and green grain production capacity from 2011 to 2024. The results show that the coupling coordination degree between China’s new quality productive forces in agriculture and green grain production capacity is not high, but shows an overall increasing trend. The coupling coordination relationship has experienced an evolution process from “mild imbalance” to “on the verge of imbalance” and then to “barely coordinated”. In terms of space, it shows obvious spatial distribution characteristics of being higher in the east and lower in the west, with the northeast leading, and there is a positive spatial correlation. The carbon sink of grain crops, multiple cropping index of grain, effective irrigation rate, electricity efficiency in grain production, and yield per unit sown area of grain are the key influencing factors for the coupling coordination of the two systems. The scale of carbon emissions from grain production, fertilizer application per unit sown area of grain, pesticide application per unit sown area of grain, agricultural film usage per unit sown area of grain, and per capita disposable income of rural residents show obvious regional heterogeneity in their impacts on the two systems.