Pancreatitis in Women of Reproductive Age: Global Burden, Rising Incidence in Youth, and Forecasts to 2050

Objective: Given the limited epidemiological evidence specifically focusing on women of reproductive age, this study aimed to systematically assess the global disease burden trends of pancreatitis among women aged 15– 49 from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts its projected burden from 2022 to 2050. Methods: Using open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated temporal trends in the disease burden using the Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, and projected the disease burden of pancreatitis from 2022 to 2050 using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model (BAPC). Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate showed overall downward trends [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = − 0.37 and − 0.80, respectively]. Conversely, ASIR exhibited upward trends in low-middle and low socio-demographic index (SDI) regions (EAPC = 0.30 and 0.12), and notably among young women under 25 (EAPC = 0.45 for ages 15– 19). Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardized DALY rate (116.37) in 2021 and was the only region with an increased burden (EAPC = 1.36). APC analysis revealed the highest local drift in ASIR for women aged 15– 19 (0.31). BAPC forecasts indicate the global ASIR will continue to rise and accelerate, reaching 28.10 by 2050. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of acute pancreatitis declined significantly in women aged 15– 49, while low and low middle SDI experienced an upward trend in ASIR, whereas younger age groups (< 25) saw rising ASIR rates. Eastern Europe was the only worsening trend. APC analysis revealed 15– 19 age group experienced the most localized ASIR drift. Prospective projections indicate this population will continue to accelerate by 2050. Keywords: pancreatitis among women, estimated annual percentage change, age-period-cohort, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model