Interplay between vaccine-related informational milestones, social media discourse, and vaccine administration rates for human papillomavirus and measles/mumps/rubella vaccines in the United States

The digital age has profoundly transformed public health communication. This study investigated the interplay between vaccine-related informational milestones, social media discourse, and vaccine administration trends for human papillomavirus (HPV) and measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccines from 2011 to 2019. The goal was to understand how vaccine-related public health and policy events align with online discourse and vaccination behaviors. This retrospective study utilized sentiment analysis of Reddit, X, and YouTube posts categorized as positive, neutral, or negative. Medical claims data from the Merative MarketScan Commercial Database were analyzed to track HPV and MMR vaccine administration rates. Vaccine-related informational milestones were compiled from the Immunization Action Coalition, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Food and Drug Administration, and Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. A total of 110 informational milestones were identified. Social media discussions were primarily neutral (59%), with positive sentiments declining from 35% to 24% between 2011 and 2019. HPV vaccine discussions demonstrated a stable positive-to-negative sentiment ratio (2.75:1 by 2019), while MMR discussions surged during specific events, notably the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak. Informational milestones often coincided with increased social media activity. HPV vaccination rates peaked in August, and MMR rates showed gradual increases with consistent seasonal peaks. Although increased online discussions rarely correlated with immediate behavioral changes, our analysis reveals intricate relationships between informational milestones, social media sentiment, and vaccine administration rates. Public health communication strategies should consider the nature of these events and the timing of announcements to effectively engage the public and promote vaccination.