Anatolian Sageretia as an indicator species for prediction of putative refuges in Taurus Mountains

The Western Taurus Mountains, a biodiversity hotspot in the Mediterranean Basin, host the Anatolian Sageretia with a relict distribution. Field studies confirm that its distribution overlaps with habitats of local endemic and critically endangered chasmophytic species. To predict similar critical habitats, Maxent modeling was used to project the species' current and future distributions under various climate scenarios. Bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA database and IPSL-CM6A-LR model were employed to assess different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The distribution of Sageretia thea var. bornmuelleri is primarily influenced by bedrock type, topography, and climate. Suitable habitats are characterized by steep limestone formations in deep valleys, with annual average temperatures between 14 to 17°C and a mean diurnal temperature difference of 11 to 12°C. All scenarios indicate a decline in the species' current distribution area, particularly at lower elevations, suggesting a shift to higher altitudes. This study highlights the importance of Anatolian Sageretia as an indicator of endemism and potential refuges, emphasizing the need for understanding its distribution for effective conservation and monitoring.