In the crosshairs: Twenty-first-century superpower rivalry for Africa’s critical minerals

Abstract This paper explores the complexity of superpower rivalry in the scramble for control of Africa’s abundant mineral resources. African governments are wary of diplomatic, economic, and sometimes military interventions, having experienced them all before. The twenty-first-century legacy is a distrust of Western motives, even as fresh development opportunities present themselves through Africa’s ‘green’ and strategic mineral wealth. African nations are desperate to kickstart growth and view the combination of local mineral wealth and non-Western capital sources as a catalyst for overcoming crippling poverty. Yet, Africa’s abundance of critical minerals is impacting security, potentially leading to competition and conflict rather than peace and prosperity. China is pursuing a ‘grand strategy’ geared towards enhancing its own national security, rather than that of Africa, through control and often ownership of critical mineral supply chains. Russia is also present in Africa, but there is no grand strategy, just opportunistic strategic liaisons between proxy paramilitary groups and undemocratic African governments. The West is now belatedly ramping up engagement with Africa in a bid to protect its national security interests. Governance is critical for ensuring that superpower rivalry over scarce resources does not destabilise the continent, but rather acts as a transformative force for African development.