Multi‐Model Impacts of Dust on African Air Quality and Mortality Under Regional and Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Changes

Abstract Decreases in anthropogenic aerosols will reduce fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ); however, meteorological feedbacks alter dust emissions, modifying air quality gains. We use eight Earth System Models from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) simulations to assess African climate and air quality responses to anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbations, including meteorological feedbacks on dust emissions. By 2050, African and global emissions reductions drive the largest continent‐average PM 2.5 decrease (0.92 ± 0.17 μg m −3 ; 5% and 1.35 ± 0.50 μg m −3 ; 7%, respectively) relative to SSP3‐7.0, though regional dust increases partially offset these reductions. Anthropogenic emissions reductions in the U.S. and Europe also lower African PM 2.5 by 0.29 ± 0.32 μg m −3 (2%) due to teleconnections of Northern Hemisphere warming influencing the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Inter‐model variability in dust and total PM 2.5 reflects differences in meteorological responses and dust emission parameterizations. Meteorological responses explain 90% of dust emissions variability across regions. Aerosol‐driven climate feedbacks on dust account for up to 70% of total PM 2.5 changes in the Sahara and Namib, offsetting up to 20% of anthropogenic PM 2.5 reductions across Africa. Under 2050 global and Africa‐wide anthropogenic aerosol reductions, 96,000 (95% CI: 54,000–137,000) and 84,000 (95% CI: 43,000–125,000) PM 2.5 ‐related deaths are avoided in Africa, respectively. Dust PM 2.5 contributes an uncertain 3.4% of the avoided deaths under global reductions and has no net effect under Africa‐wide reductions. Aerosol‐driven climate feedbacks may partially offset direct air quality gains, though their continental‐scale contribution remains small and uncertain.

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Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Published
2026-05-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd046135
Primary Topic
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Type
article
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article

Multi‐Model Impacts of Dust on African Air Quality and Mortality Under Regional and Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Changes

Naga Oshima, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Y Zhang, Molly Macrae et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
article

Multi‐Model Impacts of Dust on African Air Quality and Mortality Under Regional and Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Changes

Naga Oshima, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Y Zhang, Molly Macrae, Anna Lewinschal, Knut von Salzen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O’Donnell, Daniel M. Westervelt, Luke Fraser-Leach, Kostas Tsigaridis, Laura J. Wilcox, Steven T. Rumbold, Robert J. Allen, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Marianne T. Lund, Neil C. Swart, Sharar Ahmadi, Pierre Nabat, Bjørn H. Samset, Toshihiko Takemura, Paul Griffiths, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, James Keeble, Larissa Nazarenko, Risto Makkonen, Catherine A. Toolan, Geeta Persad, Ron L. Miller, Maxwell T. Elling, Paul Kushner, Annica M. L. Ekman
article en

Abstract

Abstract Decreases in anthropogenic aerosols will reduce fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ); however, meteorological feedbacks alter dust emissions, modifying air quality gains. We use eight Earth System Models from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) simulations to assess African climate and air quality responses to anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbations, including meteorological feedbacks on dust emissions. By 2050, African and global emissions reductions drive the largest continent‐average PM 2.5 decrease (0.92 ± 0.17 μg m −3 ; 5% and 1.35 ± 0.50 μg m −3 ; 7%, respectively) relative to SSP3‐7.0, though regional dust increases partially offset these reductions. Anthropogenic emissions reductions in the U.S. and Europe also lower African PM 2.5 by 0.29 ± 0.32 μg m −3 (2%) due to teleconnections of Northern Hemisphere warming influencing the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Inter‐model variability in dust and total PM 2.5 reflects differences in meteorological responses and dust emission parameterizations. Meteorological responses explain 90% of dust emissions variability across regions. Aerosol‐driven climate feedbacks on dust account for up to 70% of total PM 2.5 changes in the Sahara and Namib, offsetting up to 20% of anthropogenic PM 2.5 reductions across Africa. Under 2050 global and Africa‐wide anthropogenic aerosol reductions, 96,000 (95% CI: 54,000–137,000) and 84,000 (95% CI: 43,000–125,000) PM 2.5 ‐related deaths are avoided in Africa, respectively. Dust PM 2.5 contributes an uncertain 3.4% of the avoided deaths under global reductions and has no net effect under Africa‐wide reductions. Aerosol‐driven climate feedbacks may partially offset direct air quality gains, though their continental‐scale contribution remains small and uncertain.

Journal of Geophysical Research AtmospheresVol. 131(9)
University of California, Riverside (US), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI), Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (GB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), Kyushu University (JP), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), University of Toronto (CA), University of Colorado Boulder (US), Japan Meteorological Agency (JP), University of Bristol (GB), CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO), National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB), Météo-France (FR), Bolin Centre for Climate Research (SE), Meteorological Research Institute (JP), Lancaster University (GB), University of Reading (GB), Columbia University (US), The University of Texas at Austin (US)
National Science Foundation, University of Reading
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
DOISourceOpenAlex
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