Socioeconomic Disparities in Climate Change‐Induced Compound Energy Droughts in China

Abstract China pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, necessitating a profound low‐carbon transition toward solar and wind power. While recent studies have evaluated the compound risks to energy reliability from concurrent low‐solar and low‐wind (LSLW) energy droughts, less attention has been paid to the socioeconomic exposure to such compound energy supply challenges, the spatial distribution of vulnerable hotspots, and how these dynamics may evolve under climate change. Here, we conduct a systematic analysis of the evolving socioeconomic exposure to compound LSLW extremes across China by coupling multi‐model simulations under future climate scenarios. Our results reveal that compound LSLW extremes are primarily concentrated in southwestern China—an area characterized by limited renewable energy resource and relatively low‐income levels with large population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposure—making them particularly vulnerable to frequent compound energy droughts. We identify distinct geospatial disparities in socioeconomic exposure, with a significantly greater increase in population exposure to LSLW event frequency under SSP370, primarily driven by climate change. Notably, changes in GDP exposure are even more pronounced than those in population exposure. Our analysis highlights that low‐income regions with relatively low renewable resources are disproportionately vulnerable to increasingly frequent and severe LSLW extremes, and that this inequity is likely to intensify under future climate conditions. These insights are critical for informing targeted climate mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance energy security, particularly for the most vulnerable communities.

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth s Future
Published
2026-05-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007598
Primary Topic
Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Socioeconomic Disparities in Climate Change‐Induced Compound Energy Droughts in China

T G Zhu, Yawen Liu, Licheng Wang, Y Z Qin et al.
Earth s Future
Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability
article

Socioeconomic Disparities in Climate Change‐Induced Compound Energy Droughts in China

T G Zhu, Yawen Liu, Licheng Wang, Y Z Qin, Xin Huang
article en

Abstract

Abstract China pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, necessitating a profound low‐carbon transition toward solar and wind power. While recent studies have evaluated the compound risks to energy reliability from concurrent low‐solar and low‐wind (LSLW) energy droughts, less attention has been paid to the socioeconomic exposure to such compound energy supply challenges, the spatial distribution of vulnerable hotspots, and how these dynamics may evolve under climate change. Here, we conduct a systematic analysis of the evolving socioeconomic exposure to compound LSLW extremes across China by coupling multi‐model simulations under future climate scenarios. Our results reveal that compound LSLW extremes are primarily concentrated in southwestern China—an area characterized by limited renewable energy resource and relatively low‐income levels with large population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposure—making them particularly vulnerable to frequent compound energy droughts. We identify distinct geospatial disparities in socioeconomic exposure, with a significantly greater increase in population exposure to LSLW event frequency under SSP370, primarily driven by climate change. Notably, changes in GDP exposure are even more pronounced than those in population exposure. Our analysis highlights that low‐income regions with relatively low renewable resources are disproportionately vulnerable to increasingly frequent and severe LSLW extremes, and that this inequity is likely to intensify under future climate conditions. These insights are critical for informing targeted climate mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance energy security, particularly for the most vulnerable communities.

Earth s FutureVol. 14(5)
Peking University (CN), Nanjing University (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability
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