Revisiting the Effect of Star Power and Award History on Opening Month Box Office Performance

Using data from Chinese domestic films released between 2020 and 2024, this study explores the impact of star power on box office performance. Unlike existing research, this study divides star power into two components—online influence and industry recognition—and separately analyses their effects on box office trends over the first 5 weeks of release. Online influence is measured by the number of fans, while industry recognition is measured by the number of awards won by stars. Data were collected from platforms such as Maoyan Pro, Sina Weibo, and Douban, ensuring a comprehensive dataset that reflects multiple dimensions of star power. Regression results show that from the first week to the fifth week after release, the influence of star fan numbers on box office performance decreases over time and becomes insignificant, whereas the influence of awards becomes increasingly significant. In addition, once external evaluation signals such as audience ratings and reviews are taken into account, the explanatory power of internal star power variables declines substantially. These findings highlight the short-term effects of fan-driven box office performance and the increasing importance of industry recognition and audience evaluations in shaping the longer-term performance of films. They also suggest an information-updating process in which audiences gradually shift from pre-release signals to post-release evaluations as more information becomes available. From a practical perspective, the results imply that while popularity-driven promotion can generate initial attention, sustained box office performance depends more on credible signals reflected in audience ratings and reviews.