The Hydrological Dynamics, Resource Exploitation, and Ecological Risks of Lake Baikal: Implications for Future Protection and Water Governance

Water scarcity is an increasingly pressing global concern, making the sustainable development of water resources a critical priority. Revered as the “Sacred Sea,” Lake Baikal holds the largest volume of freshwater in any single lake in the world, with exceptional water quality, conferring it with considerable global strategic importance. This study reviews the hydrological dynamics of Lake Baikal, including water level fluctuations and runoff patterns, and examines water resource utilization (including virtual water and long-distance diversion), along with its potential, challenges, and associated ecological risks, in an integrated manner. Previous studies reveal an interannual cycle of fluctuating water levels, with annual peaks typically occurring between September and October. Outflow runoff closely depends on lake water levels, while inflow runoff exhibits considerable variability. The Selenga River, the largest tributary originating from the Mongolian Plateau, significantly influences the lake’s hydrology and ecological integrity. Current water uses primarily include domestic supply, regional industry, and fisheries, while agricultural water use is relatively limited and mainly occurs within tributary catchments. Emerging options, such as virtual water trade, may offer relatively more manageable alternatives to large-scale transboundary water transfers in certain contexts. Given the multiple disturbances and potential impacts on the Lake Baikal ecosystem, this study advocates prioritizing ecological protection in water resource utilization and underscores the necessity of comprehensive, system-level assessments prior to any water extraction or diversion activities.