A driver-pressure-state-impact-response and system dynamics framework for climate change adaptation in vulnerable wetlands

Wetlands are among the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate change, providing critical services such as biodiversity support and water regulation; however, the Shadegan Wetland in Iran, the country's largest Ramsar site, faces severe degradation from upstream dam construction, agricultural expansion, industrial wastewater, and climate-induced hydrological alterations. This study integrates the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework with System Dynamics (SD) modeling to diagnose these problems, simulate future climate change impacts, and evaluate adaptation strategies. The DPSIR framework was used to systematically map causal relationships, which directly informed the development of an SD model incorporating hydrological, socioeconomic, and environmental subsystems. The model was calibrated and validated using observational data (2001-2017). Future climate scenarios (2030-2059) were generated using eight AOGCM models under SSP2-4.5, projecting a 1.74 °C temperature increase and a 5.21% precipitation increase. Under climate change alone, the wetland water area is projected to decrease by 31.12%, with the water quality index (WQI) deteriorating by 18.12%. Individual adaptation strategies showed limited effectiveness, while combined strategies-particularly integrating a 15% irrigation efficiency improvement with the elimination of rice cultivation-increased wetland water area by over 10% and significantly improved water quality. The integrated DPSIR-SD framework effectively identifies synergistic strategies for mitigating adverse climate change impacts on vulnerable wetland ecosystems.