Heterogeneous Effects of Growth, Energy Use, Globalization and Democracy on Energy Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Examines energy risk determinants in 21 SSA countries using MMQR • Economic growth raises energy risk mainly at lower risk quantiles • Energy consumption intensifies risk only in high‑vulnerability contexts • Globalization and democracy consistently mitigate energy risk • Reframes SDG‑7 progress as a risk governance challenge in SSA This paper examines the determinants of energy risk across 21 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, employing the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to capture distributional heterogeneity. Unlike previous studies relying on mean-based estimators, this analysis explores how GDP per capita, energy consumption, globalization, and democracy affect energy risk across different quantiles. In brief, the results reveal notable asymmetries. While economic growth is associated with increased energy risk at lower quantiles, its marginal impact diminishes at higher risk levels, suggesting structural adaptation or efficiency gains. Further, energy consumption becomes a significant driver of risk only at higher quantiles, indicating its amplified effect in countries already facing elevated risk levels. In contrast, globalization and democratic governance are associated with lower energy risk across the distribution, with democracy exhibiting a progressively stronger mitigating effect in high-risk settings. These findings underscore the need for tailored policy responses, particularly in aligning early-stage growth with energy access goals and strengthening institutional frameworks to enhance resilience. By reframing progress toward SDG‑7, this study contributes to the energy security literature by demonstrating that structural and institutional factors shape national capacities to manage energy risk in SSA.