Seasonal Spatial Population Density Distribution Dynamics of Lynx and Ungulate Prey in Cold‐Temperate Coniferous Forests

ABSTRACT Understanding the drivers of wildlife spatial distribution can help to guide effective conservation and management. Seasonality is an important factor affecting food resources and other habitat conditions, influencing spatial distribution dynamics. This study used data from 110 camera traps in the Inner Mongolia Hanma National Nature Reserve, China, from 2016 to 2021 to estimate the population densities of lynx ( Lynx lynx ) and three ungulate prey species, and analyzed them using Random Encounter Models. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the effects of environmental factors on the spatial density distribution of prey and their impacts on the lynx spatial density distribution in cold and warm seasons. The results showed that during the warm season, roe deer ( Capreolus pygargus ) spatial density distribution was influenced by forest swamps and birch forests; in the cold season, fallen logs, shrub swamps, and mixed forests most significantly impacted distribution. Moose ( Alces alces ) population density was higher near shrub swamps during the warm season, but higher in areas with higher Betula fruticosa shrub abundance and fewer fallen logs in the cold season. Musk deer ( Moschus moschiferus ) population density was higher closer to roads, birch forests, and mixed forests in both warm and cold seasons, and either higher (cold season) or lower (warm season) B . fruticosa shrub abundance. Except for moose in high‐elevation areas during the cold season, the three ungulate species inhabited low‐elevation areas during warm and cold seasons. Lynx spatial density distribution in the warm season was primarily influenced by musk deer density, B . fruticosa shrub abundance, and fallen tree abundance; in the cold season, lynx were mainly affected by roe deer and musk deer density, elevation, and slope. To assist lynx recovery in the region, protection of wild prey populations should be strengthened, and habitat quality elements, such as forest structure and composition, should be improved.